Prices
Is it a fair price? And where is it cheapest?
The market read, and the two questions before you buy — the asking price vs. the market, and the tax math across countries. Estimated, and honest about what it can't yet see.
All prices in US dollars ($) · estimated · updated Jul 2026
Secondhand premium over retail — ▼ from 2.2× at the 2022 peak (Bernstein, all B/K auction avg).
+44% since 2015 · 2026 US list. Flat $9,400 2015-2018, flat $9,850 2019-2021, then the post-2021 acceleration - including TWO 2025 increases (6 Jan, then the 5 May tariff round).
| Bag | S&P | Gold | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980–2015, annualized | +14.2%/yr | +8.65%/yr | −1.5%/yr |
| Last 10 years (avg bag) | +~92% | +~200% | — |
| Mini Kelly II, 2022–2025 | +~300% | +43% | — |
Historically Birkins outran stocks — but honesty first: over the LAST decade the S&P beat the AVERAGE bag, while the hottest models still crushed it. Informational only, not investment advice.
Is this a fair price?
Paste a resale asking price and pick the spec — we compare it to our estimated market price.
Our estimated market price is a single pristine-example reference, compiled from 2026 public marketplace listings (Fashionphile, 1stDibs, Sotheby's, The Luxury Closet) — sourced per spec in our data. It is not a live many-listing median (that arrives with Supply View) and not an appraisal. Condition, hardware, stamp year and completeness move real prices. Estimated; not affiliated with Hermès.
Where's it cheapest?
Pick a bag (or type any price) — see the net cost in every market after VAT refunds and sales tax.
Pick a bag or enter a price
| Market | Tax rule | Est. net cost | vs. buying in US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italycheapest≈13% back after operator fees | VAT refund · 22% | $11,745 | −$2,953 |
| France (Paris)≈12% back via détaxe after operator fees | VAT refund · 20% | $11,880 | −$2,818 |
| Germany≈11–12% back after operator fees | VAT refund · 19% | $11,948 | −$2,750 |
| Japan≈9% off at the in-store tax-free counter | VAT refund · 10% | $12,285 | −$2,413 |
| South Korea≈7–8% back after fees | VAT refund · 10% | $12,488 | −$2,210 |
| Singapore≈7% back on the 9% GST after fees | VAT refund · 9% | $12,555 | −$2,143 |
| Switzerlandlower VAT (8.1%) → smaller refund | VAT refund · 8.1% | $12,690 | −$2,008 |
| UAE (Dubai)≈85% of the 5% VAT refunded | VAT refund · 5% | $12,960 | −$1,738 |
| United KingdomNO tourist VAT refund since Jan 2021 | no refund · 20% | $13,500 | −$1,198 |
| Hong Kongno VAT or sales tax | no tax | $13,500 | −$1,198 |
| United States (NYC)sales tax added at register; not refundable to visitors | sales tax added · 8.9% | $14,698 | — |
How to read this: this isolates the tax effect only, holding the list price constant. Real boutique list prices also differ by country (Paris is typically lower even before the refund) — live per-country list prices arrive with our data pipeline. Refund percentages are estimated, net of operator fees, and vary by refund service, spend, and year.
Cite this data
Our numbers are our own compiled, dated work. You're welcome to cite them — with a link back to this page. Please don't republish the dataset wholesale or scrape it without permission. All prices are estimates in USD with named sources; the Index is an all-size auction average.
Cite as: “Orange Peel — the Orange Peel Index,” orangepeel.to/prices · Updated July 2026
Estimates compiled from public and community-reported data + tax-authority rates · not an appraisal or tax advice · Orange Peel is an independent publication, not affiliated with Hermès or any brand mentioned.